By Silicon el 24-Apr-2008 |
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Comscore (SCOR) has had it up to its eyeballs with being blamed for blowing Google's quarter (GOOG). A week after a company blog post failed to quiet screams that inaccurate Google click data had cost investors millions, Comscore's CEO Magid Abraham sends an even more strongly worded email to clients.
The bottom line?
- Our data was accurate.
- Pundits and investors who are blaming us should look in the mirror and ask why they couldn't even be bothered to distinguish between "US" and "Global."
- The untold story of Google's quarter is that Google's US business stinks.
Dr. Magid Abraham, Comscore CEO:
When Google announced strong Q1 earnings last
week, some financial and media analysts wrote that comScore's reports of
slowing growth in Google's paid clicks missed the mark. That conclusion is
patently false.
Unfortunately,
many pundits attempted to draw conclusions about Google's
worldwide revenue performance based on comScore's domestic paid
click data, resulting in an apples-to-oranges comparison. Had they used
comScore's domestic paid click data to better understand Google's
domestic revenue trends, they wouldn't have missed an important
U.S. story and they also likely would have avoided making the wrong call on
Google's worldwide business.
Following several historical quarters
of strong sequential domestic revenue growth (including the
seasonally equivalent Q1 2007), Google's Q1 2008 revenue growth was
essentially flat, which represented a significant change for Google's domestic
business. Such an important trend was also evident in comScore's paid click
data.
The
chart below shows the directional association between
comScore's domestic paid click trends, as compared to Google's
domestic revenue trends.

[The
chart can also be viewed at the following link: http://www.comscore.com/images/google_us.gif]
Of course, this
is not a perfect correlation because the comScore data do not include the impact
of changes in Google's price per click and do not include paid clicks from
partner sites like AOL, Ask, Washington Post, etc. nor paid clicks from
the AdSense network. But the strong relationship of the two trends is
undeniable.
There is of
course a lesson to be learned here. To extrapolate a single data point across
all aspects of a company's business can lead to wildly inaccurate
conclusions.
Finally,
to confirm the accuracy of the comScore paid click data, we previously published
an apples-to-apples reconciliation on this blog. This analysis reconciles the comScore data with metrics shown in
Google's Q1, 2008 financial report. In short, comScore got it right - both
quantitatively and qualitatively. What was wrong were the conclusions that some
people drew based on inherently flawed
comparisons.
Dr. Magid
Abraham
President
and CEO
comScore,
Inc.

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