Include to favorites
Log in Logout Register
Start Login Contact Help Photos What's new
Avanced Search
FAQ
RESULTS IN: TEXT IMAGES

Hello, Guest
Login  Register
Online: 181 visitors

Blogging (2)
Business (1)
Educational (2)
Gadgets (1)
Games (2)
High Tech News (1)
Internet (0)
PC (1)
PDA (0)
Photography (0)
Science (1)
Software (1)
Wireless (1)


Browse by date

<< January 2009 >>
MonTueWedThrFriSatSun
1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031




Recent searches

Popular searches

Hot this month

Weblogs Archive


GADGETS AND GAMES DIRECTORY :: > Business Register Weblog >  Business Tech Weblogs - WEEKLYBITS.COM GADGETS AND GAMES DIRECTORY
Silicon Alley Insider
generated by   en Blogger
SEND A FRIEND
Suscribing to  please login first
User: Login

Weblog covering digital business
Digital Business, Live From New York.Visit Silicon Alley Insider
Address URLhttp://www.alleyinsider.com/    Registered: 22-Mar-2008
Ads:

Send to email
Visit Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next in General
By Silicon
el 07-Oct-2008

fred wilson.jpgThe Treasury, the Fed, and Warren Buffet have been the only buyers in this meltdown and have been largely focused on financial companies. Meanwhile the rest of the market has gone down 30% year to date and very few, if any, stocks have been spared.

What do we look for next? Does the market just keep going down endlessly? What will bring this to an end? Clearly not government intervention. While possibly necessary (we'll see), the splurge has clearly not put an end to selling in the markets.

We need to see more Warren Buffets stepping up. And my bet is they will eventually. And they will be corporations buying back their own stock, large private equity and buyout firms doing going private transactions with all equity cap structures, and possibly foreign companies seeking bargain acquisitions in the US.

What's interesting, as Howard pointed out repeatedly on twitter yesterday, is that corporations have not yet stepped up to stock buybacks.

Microsoft announced last month that they plan to buy back $40bn in stock over the next five years. They have $25bn in cash and short term investments and are currently earning about $20bn per year in operating cash flow. Microsoft's stock is trading at about 11x operating cash flow. It's market cap is $227bn and institutions own 60% of it, meaning there is about $130bn of $MSFT stock in the hands of institutions. If Microsoft wanted to, at the current price, it could purchase all $130bn of that stock from institutions with its current cash balance plus operating earnings over the next five years. If Microsoft is confident about its business prospects going forward, it should be an aggressive buyer of its own stock at these levels. And maybe it is. It's stock is only down 3% in the past month while the S&P has been down 15%.

What about Google? $GOOG is down almost 50% year to date and the company is valued at $115bn. Institutions own roughly 60% of its stock, roughly $70bn of it. Google is earning about $7bn of operating cash per year and has $13bn of cash and short term investments on hand. So it would take Google longer to buy back all the stock institutions own, more like eight to ten years. But still, that's a lot of purchasing power and the market is asking the same question Howard did yesterday.

The silence of $goog into this meltdown is just as deafening with all their cash. I am not going to be run over.

In bad bear markets, like we are in, investors look to corporations to defend their stock and Google has not yet shown an interest in doing that. That's something to look for. When you net out Google's cash, it's trading at $100bn, a mere 12x operating cash flow. That's value territory.

Let's look at News Corp. Rupert Murdoch's company, the best managed media company out there, is down 56% in the past year and is now trading at a mere six times operating cash flow. News Corp is also about 60% institutionally owned. So that means Rupert could buy out his external investors with four years of his cash flow. But we have yet to see him do that.

I could go on and on. Apple is worth $67bn after you back out the $20bn of cash they have on hand. It earns over $5bn a year. That's another value stock right there.

And those are some of the best US companies right there. The list goes on and on. Starbucks trades at 7x cash flow, Walmart trades at 10x cash flow, AT&T trades at 4x cash flow, and Comcast trades at 6x cash flow.

You could buy all of America's best corporations for somewhere around eight to ten times cash flow. Someone is going to start doing this.

Maybe it will be the large private equity and buyout firms who have been stuck on the sidelines while the debt markets have been closed for the past year. If good companies get cheap enough, they can buy them with their cash, without debt, and own them for however long the markets take to work the issues out.

Or foreign companies will come in. I am particularly interested in the asian companies. Will a company like Dell be an attractive acquisition for an asian manufacturer flush with cash? It's only trading at 5x cash flow after you back out the cash on hand.

I read this history of the panic of 1873 yesterday after seeing a twitter post by Mary Hodder that referenced it. It's worth reading. There are two really interesting points in it. The first is that panic was precipitated in some measure by the US' emerging prowess as a player in the global economy and a lower cost one at that:

Wheat exporters from Russia and Central Europe faced a new international competitor who drastically undersold them. The 19th-century version of containers manufactured in China and bound for Wal-Mart consisted of produce from farmers in the American Midwest. They used grain elevators, conveyer belts, and massive steam ships to export trainloads of wheat to abroad. Britain, the biggest importer of wheat, shifted to the cheap stuff quite suddenly around 1871. By 1872 kerosene and manufactured food were rocketing out of America's heartland, undermining rapeseed, flour, and beef prices. The crash came in Central Europe in May 1873, as it became clear that the region's assumptions about continual economic growth were too optimistic. Europeans faced what they came to call the American Commercial Invasion. A new industrial superpower had arrived, one whose low costs threatened European trade and a European way of life.

But possibly even more interesting was who emerged as the winners of the panic of 1873:

The long-term effects of the Panic of 1873 were perverse. For the largest manufacturing companies in the United States - those with guaranteed contracts and the ability to make rebate deals with the railroads - the Panic years were golden. Andrew Carnegie, Cyrus McCormick, and John D. Rockefeller had enough capital reserves to finance their own continuing growth. For smaller industrial firms that relied on seasonal demand and outside capital, the situation was dire. As capital reserves dried up, so did their industries. Carnegie and Rockefeller bought out their competitors at fire-sale prices. The Gilded Age in the United States, as far as industrial concentration was concerned, had begun.

We have yet to see the Carnegies, McCormicks, and Rockefellers of China, India, Russia, and the Middle East emerge as capitalists on a global scale. But with prime assets like I mentioned above on sale at bargain basement prices, it's just a matter of time until we will.

Eventually this market meltdown will be over and stability will return. But things will not be the same. There will be big winners and big losers. We have already seen many of the big losers emerge, but we have not yet seen the big winners emerge. I think we know where to look for them though.

SAI contributor Fred Wilson is a partner at Union Square Ventures. He writes the influential A VC, where this post was originally published.



Read 3 times

Suscribing to  please login first
Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next -  Tech Weblogs - WEEKLYBITS.COM  Blogger Weblog covering digi

Photologs
Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL)

macworld-09-thumb-1.jpg - Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL)
Más fotos Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL) + fotos




06-Jan-2009
Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL)

macworld-09-thumb-2.jpg - Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL)
Más fotos Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL) + fotos




06-Jan-2009
Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL)

macworld-09-thumb-3.jpg - Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL)
Más fotos Macworld 2009 Gallery: Live From San Francisco (AAPL) + fotos




06-Jan-2009

Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

Fred Wilson: Why Widgets Suck, And How To Fix Them
Union Square Ventures' Fred Wilson delivered the keynote at Brooklyn's Widget World Expo today, which makes sense -- Fred has long been one of the widget world's biggest boosters and use [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 17-Jun-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 7 times. More hits in More articles Fred Wilson: Why Widgets Suck, And How To Fix Them Images about Fred Wilson: Why Widgets Suck, And How To Fix Them
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

NYT, Meet USV
One of Silicon Alley Insider's unspoken assumptions is that our readers know who Fred Wilson, Brad Burnham, and the rest of the Union Square Ventures team are, and care a lot about what they think and do. That's why we write about them all the time, and why we're happy to run Fred's posts as often as possible. But if you need a refresher course, here's the NYT: [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 21-Sep-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 3 times. More hits in More articles NYT, Meet USV Images about NYT, Meet USV
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
The Treasury, the Fed, and Warren Buffet have been the only buyers in this meltdown and have been largely focused on financial companies. Meanwhile the rest of the market has gone down 30% year to date and very fe [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 07-Oct-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 3 times. More hits in More articles Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next Images about Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

The Power Of Google Juice
fred traffic.png - The Power Of Google Juice When you type fred wilson into google, you get my blog as the first result. It's been that way for the past three or four years. You also get my bio on the Union Square Ventures weblog, [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 08-Jun-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 12 times. More hits in More articles The Power Of Google Juice Images about The Power Of Google Juice
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

Who Are This Year's Y Combinator Winners?
Team SAI may have been the only people on the East Coast who weren't at the Y Combinator Demo Day in Cambridge yesterday. Union Square Ventures' Fred Wilson flew in from San Francisco, and met [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 15-Aug-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 0 times. More hits in More articles Who Are This Year Images about Who Are This Year
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

Here's Your Chance To Go To Work For Fred Wilson: Help Him Write A Keynote
The Web 2.0 conference juggernaut is coming to NYC this fall. On September 16-19 there will be a Web 2.0 Expo at the Javits Center. The conference organizers have asked me to give [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 29-Jul-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 0 times. More hits in More articles Here Images about Here
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

Fred Wilson: Capital Efficiency Finds Its Moment
My partner Albert calculated early last year that it takes about 1/10th the hardware, software, bandwidth, storage, and other expenses to build a web service compared to what it took in the 99/2000 time period. Th [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 09-Oct-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 3 times. More hits in More articles Fred Wilson: Capital Efficiency Finds Its Moment Images about Fred Wilson: Capital Efficiency Finds Its Moment
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

USV Hires "Marketing.FM" Blogger
eric-friedman.jpg - USV Hires "Marketing.FM" Blogger Get ready to see Eric Friedman at a lot more New York tech events. He's joining Union Square Ventures, led by Fred Wilson (SA 100 #3) and Brad Burnham (SA 100 #27), as analyst. Fried [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 10-Jun-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 5 times. More hits in More articles USV Hires "Marketing.FM" Blogger Images about USV Hires "Marketing.FM" Blogger
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York

BlackBerry Fan Longs For A Better Curve
If we wanted a heavy, expensive 3G phone, we'd buy the BlackBerry Bold. If we wanted a touch-screen keyboard, we'd buy the iPhone. So we agree with Fred Wilson: We're looking forward to the day that Research in Motion [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 29-Nov-2008 by Alley In in General
Read 1 times. More hits in More articles BlackBerry Fan Longs For A Better Curve Images about BlackBerry Fan Longs For A Better Curve
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

Fred Wilson: My Thoughts On 'Startup Depression'
[Editor's note: Over the weekend, we published an email by Mahalo CEO/Weblogs Inc. founder Jason Calacanis called "(The) Startup Depression," and then removed it at Jason's request. He has since publ [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 30-Sep-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 0 times. More hits in More articles Fred Wilson: My Thoughts On Images about Fred Wilson: My Thoughts On
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

Fred Wilson: My Thoughts On 'Startup Depression'
[Editor's note: Over the weekend, we published an email by Mahalo CEO/Weblogs Inc. founder Jason Calacanis called "(The) Startup Depression," and then removed it at Jason's request. He has since publ [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 30-Sep-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 0 times. More hits in More articles Fred Wilson: My Thoughts On Images about Fred Wilson: My Thoughts On
Silicon Alley Insider Blogger

Weblog covering digital business Silicon Alley Insider Digital Business, Live From New York.

Twitter: We'll Announce Our Secret Business Model Early Next Year
"It's like the stupidest question in the world," Fred Wilson said of the robotic query chirped at Twitter people in every interview ("But how are you going to make money?") Given the rate at which Twitter has [..] Read complete article
Subscribe to Fred Wilson: What To Look For Next
Published 18-Oct-2008 by Silicon in General
Read 0 times. More hits in More articles Twitter: We Images about Twitter: We

Warning We are not responsible of information posted from external feeds. Use this website at your own risk. Notice: We will not be liable for any direct or indirect loss or damage arising under this disclaimer or in connection with our website, whether arising in tort, contract, or otherwise.


Your Site here Your Site here Your site here Your site here Your site here