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 Send to email | LIVE ANALYSIS: Google Q1 Earnings in GOOG |  By Silicon
el 16-Apr-2008 |
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 Google
(GOOG) reports Q1 Thursday after the close. The call is at 4:30 Eastern
/ 1:30 Pacific (a half-hour earlier than you think). We'll be providing
live analysis of the release and conference call.
Release
Webcast (1:30PM / 4:30PM)
SAI Spreadsheet: Google Financial Analysis
PREVIEW
We won't rehash the full debate, but here are the highlights. In Q1, the market has seen:
- Violent slowdown in US paid click growth, per Comscore: From 25% year-over-year in Q4 to 2% year-over-year in Q1.
- Some anecdotal reports of weak US spending on Google in Q1 offset
by many reports of strong US spending (conflicting data points)
- Major cuts in analyst estimates for Q1 and full-year 2008
- A 30% drop in the stock, from $650 to $450.
We know Google is intentionally reducing "accidental clicks" to
improve ROIs for advertisers. We also know that, as late as early
March, Eric Schmidt said the company still hadn't seen any impact from
the weakening economy. The bulls argue that the company's click-
quality improvement programs will lead to higher prices-per-click for
the remaining clicks, thus offsetting the loss of revenue units. The
bears argue that price increases can't possibly offset the drastic
slowdown and that Google will see a sharp deceleration in US revenue in
Q1.
Google generates about half of its revenue from the US, so if the US
slowdown is significant, international would have to be extremely
strong to offset it. Consensus estimates have dropped significantly
since the start of the quarter, however, so the bar is considerably
lower than it was three months ago.
We have modeled the quarter in detail, and we believe the company
could survive a slowdown in the US business to about 25% Y/Y versus 40%
in Q4 (and reported paid-click growth in Q1 of 2%). Any more of a
slowdown, and Google will probably miss the current revenue consensus.
(The EPS consensus is easier: Unless Google has continued to increase
spending in the face of a sharp revenue slowdown, the company should
easily beat EPS consensus).
Key Metrics
- Gross Revenue: $5.2 billion consensus, up 41%
- Net Revenue: $3.1 billion consensus, up 42% (deceleration from 52% in Q4)
- EPS: $4.52 (Should be plenty of upside here, unless company really blows it)
- Consensus Outlook:
- June Q: $3.8 billion Revenue / $4.64 EPS
- 2008: $15.9 billion / $19.55
- 2009: $20.2 billion / $24.09
SAI Spreadsheet: Google Financial Analysis
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| eBay (EBAY): Q1 Preview LIVE ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSE | | Ebay (EBAY) reports earnings after the close. Conference call at 2PM Pacific, 5PM Eastern. We will provide live analysis of the release and conference call after the close.
PREVIEW
eBay's stock has rallied off low on stronger-than-expected listings growth. The company's recent fee changes to its core marketplace a [..] Read complete article | | Published 16-Apr-2008 by Silicon in EBAYGMV
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| LIVE: Apple Q2 Earnings Analysis (AAPL) | | LIVE coverage beginning at 4 p.m. ET.
Preview:
The big question: How many Macs did Apple sell? The Street expects sales of 2.0 million, but we've seen estimates as high as 2.2 million (RBC's Mike Abramsky) and whisper numbers up to 2.3 million. Anything
below 2.0 million would be disappointing. But anything over 2.1 million
Macs would be "a significant positive," says Pip [..] Read complete article | | Published 23-Apr-2008 by Silicon in RBC
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 | Problogger |  Blogger | Blog tips to help you blogging
ProBlogger Blog Tips Make Money Online |
| Search, Social and Direct Traffic - [TRAFFIC ANALYSIS] | ![DPS-Traffic-Social-bookmarking-spikes.png - Search, Social and Direct Traffic - [TRAFFIC ANALYSIS]](http://www.twitip.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/dps-traffic-social-bookmarking-spikes-tm.jpg) This morning I spent a little time doing some analysis (using Google Analytics) of the traffic coming into my main blog - Digital Photography School.
My analysis was stimulated by a question from a reader who in response to last week’s two posts examining the place of Digg and Social Bookmarkingin a bloggers priorities asked me:
What [...] [..] Read complete article | | Published 17-Nov-2008 by Darren Rowse in
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Google reports Q3 results this evening after the close. Please join us at 4PM for LIVE ANALYSIS.
The good news: Google has a better chance of surprising on the upside this quart [..] 
It's earnings season, and we've seen better. Google (GOOG) missed earnings, attributing problems to quality control, a summer slump, and consumer skittishness. Nokia (NOK) met expectation [..] 
Google has had some success getting companies to try its Web-based Google Apps suite: In a February profile, Google boasted half a million customers; it repeated that number during its earnings ca [..] 
