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Weblog of a University of Kansas ecology and evolutionary biology student, fighting for progressive politics, evolution, and endangered species.
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| Address URL | http://scienceblogs.com/tfk/ Registered: 31-Mar-2008 |
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 Send to email | McCain abandons Michigan, shores up the levees in Virginia in Policy and Politics |  By Thoughts
el 02-Oct-2008 | John McCain is in trouble. Public polling has shifted toward Obama, and Obama's larger donor base allowing him to outspend McCain in traditional Republican strongholds like Indiana. With Colorado and New Mexico in play out west, and a good chance that Obama will take Nevada, too, traditional battlegrounds like Ohio and Florida are less critical than in 2000 and 2004.
Indeed, there are several plausible scenarios in which Obama wins the Electoral College without Ohio or Florida. With Iowa, Virginia, and the western states in play, the struggle is much broader than it has been in several elections. Obama's strong organization and fundraising have let him exploit that broader field, forcing McCain to play defense.
In the same week that McCain began running TV ads for the Indiana market, he has also had to announce that his campaign in Michigan (which voted for Kerry and Gore) is shutting down. And he's being forced to play defense in Virginia, a state Gore and Kerry lost.
Obama is playing defense in only one Kerry state: New Hampshire. And its four electoral votes are more than matched by Nevada's 5, or the 5 from New Mexico, or the 9 available from Colorado. Or the 13 in Virginia. Iowa Obama can safely assume he's got 248 electoral votes, out of 270 needed to win.
Tack on the 7 from Iowa (which is solidly in Obama's camp), and need only pick up 15 electoral votes. There are 9 in Colorado, 13 in Virginia, 5 in Nevada and in New Mexico, and 4 in New Hampshire, leaving lots of combinations which yield a win (or a tie, which would be resolved by a vote of the Democratic Congress). Ohio has 20 electoral votes, and Florida has 27, so a win in either state would mean a clear victory.
On the other hand, McCain cannot win without taking Florida and Ohio. Even granting him Virginia, the western states, Iowa, and New Hampshire, he doesn't clear 270 without both of those swing states. To have any other path to victory, he would need to put new states into play, and the withdrawal from Michigan leaves him no plausible chances in a Kerry state. There will be a big fight in Pennsylvania, but Joe Biden is a native son there, and if enough folks travel in from New Jersey and New York to knock on doors, I don't see how Obama/Biden can lose there.
It isn't over yet, and tonight's debate and the second presidential debate could still shake up perceptions, and could events in the financial world. But so far, McCain's floundering on the economy and Palin's general floundering make those shorts of shift very unlikely.
McCain is playing defense at this point, and while a the best defense is a good offense, that doesn't mean being offensive. Someone should tell McCain. Read the comments on this post...
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 | Thoughts From Kansas |  Blogger | Weblog of a University of Kansas ecology and evolutionary biology student, fighting for progressive politics, evolution, and endangered species.
Thoughts from Kansas You will notice that it lacks definiteness; that it lacks purpose; that it lacks coherence; that it lacks a subject to talk about; that it is loose and wabbly; that it wanders around; that |
| McCain abandons Michigan, shores up the levees in Virginia | | John McCain is in trouble. Public polling has shifted toward Obama, and Obama's larger donor base allowing him to outspend McCain in traditional Republican strongholds like Indiana. With Colorado and New Mexico in play out west, and a good chance that Obama will take Nevada, too, traditional battlegrounds like Ohio and Florida are less critical than in 2000 and 2004.
Indeed, there are [..] Read complete article | | Published 02-Oct-2008 by Thoughts in Policy and Politics
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| Thoughts From Kansas | Blogger | Weblog of a University of Kansas ecology and evolutionary biology student, fighting for progressive politics, evolution, and endangered species.
Thoughts from Kansas You will notice that it lacks definiteness; that it lacks purpose; that it lacks coherence; that it lacks a subject to talk about; that it is loose and wabbly; that it wanders around; that |
| Palin-spastic: John McCain can't tell a pig from a pitbull, can't see past Palin's lipstick | | Speaking in Lebanon, Virginia yesterday, Barack Obama went after John McCain's policies:
"John McCain says he's about change, too," Obama said, leading into a string of ways he contends McCain represents more of the same -- economic policy, taxes, education, foreign policy, campaign tactics. "That's not change. That's just calling something that's the same thing something diff [..] Read complete article | | Published 10-Sep-2008 by Thoughts in Policy and Politics
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| Thoughts From Kansas | Blogger | Weblog of a University of Kansas ecology and evolutionary biology student, fighting for progressive politics, evolution, and endangered species.
Thoughts from Kansas You will notice that it lacks definiteness; that it lacks purpose; that it lacks coherence; that it lacks a subject to talk about; that it is loose and wabbly; that it wanders around; that |
| Questions for McCain about Israel | | The Editors ask: McCain: Enemy of Israel or All Out Anti-Semite?:
The media has paid far too little attention to John McCain’s pledge in April to cut off all aid to Israel. Shortly after McCain issued that promise to completely abandon Israel, the McCain camp was forced to backtrack publicly due to pressure from various campaign advisors. But that was f [..] Read complete article | | Published 11-Sep-2008 by Thoughts in Policy and Politics
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| McCain's Collapse Resumes | | Sarah Palin briefly arrested the collapse of John McCain's odds of winning the presidency with her performance in the debate last night: By this morning, McCain's odds on Intrade had upticked from 33% to 33.8%.
Alas, the Palin effect quickly wore off, and by the end of the day, McCain's odds had plummeted to a new post-convention low: 30%. McCain has now lost 18 points in the past 18 d [..] Read complete article | | Published 03-Oct-2008 by Silicon in General
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| Thoughts From Kansas | Blogger | Weblog of a University of Kansas ecology and evolutionary biology student, fighting for progressive politics, evolution, and endangered species.
Thoughts from Kansas You will notice that it lacks definiteness; that it lacks purpose; that it lacks coherence; that it lacks a subject to talk about; that it is loose and wabbly; that it wanders around; that |
| Veepstakes | | Joan Walsh wonders: "Are Kaine and Bayh the best Obama can do?"
No. Conventional wisdom has narrowed the Democratic veepstakes to those two and Kathleen Sebelius. Kaine gets a lot of the DC attention, since he's right there in Virginia, but there's no reason Walsh should blow off Sebelius.
Bayh would be a stupid choice. Obama's strength against McCain is that he was right abo [..] Read complete article | | Published 31-Jul-2008 by Thoughts in Policy and Politics
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| Kotaku`s The Gamers Guide | Blogger | XBOX 360 Gamers Weblog
Gossip, news and leaks for obsessive gamers Kotaku As if you don't waste enough of your time in a gamer's haze, here's Kotaku: a gamer's guide that goes beyond the press release. Gossip, cheats, criticism, design, nostalgia, pred |
| McCain Mauled | | Good thing the chart below isn't quite up to date, or the McCain camp might really despair. After losing the debate last night (per most critics), McCain again plunges on Intrade. His odds of winning the presidency have now hit a new post-Palin low of 24.5%.
[..] Read complete article | | Published 08-Oct-2008 by Silicon in General
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| Thoughts From Kansas | Blogger | Weblog of a University of Kansas ecology and evolutionary biology student, fighting for progressive politics, evolution, and endangered species.
Thoughts from Kansas You will notice that it lacks definiteness; that it lacks purpose; that it lacks coherence; that it lacks a subject to talk about; that it is loose and wabbly; that it wanders around; that |
| Taking McSame to the woodshed | | Nitpicker's Terry Welch puts John McCain in his place:
I'm bothered by John McCain's response to Barack Obama, who pointed out that Webb's remodeled G.I. Bill is something McCain should get behind.…
I feel a true disdain for noncommissioned officers in what McCain is saying when he says the bill would encourage "people not to choose to become noncommissioned off [..] Read complete article | | Published 23-May-2008 by Thoughts in Policy and Politics
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| Thoughts From Kansas | Blogger | Weblog of a University of Kansas ecology and evolutionary biology student, fighting for progressive politics, evolution, and endangered species.
Thoughts from Kansas You will notice that it lacks definiteness; that it lacks purpose; that it lacks coherence; that it lacks a subject to talk about; that it is loose and wabbly; that it wanders around; that |
| McCain: Not ready to lead |  Talking Points Memo:
yesterday John McCain was interviewed on the Florida affiliate of Spanish radio network Union Radio. And in the interview McCain appeared not to know who the Prim [..] Read complete article | | Published 18-Sep-2008 by Thoughts in Policy and Politics
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| McCain Plummets With Stocks | | John McCain unleashed a fusillade of attacks on Barack Obama today (mysterious background, shady Palestinian donors, etc), trying to change the subject from the economy. Taking a page out of Karl Rove's playbook, Obama's campaign responded by saying that John McCain was "angry" and "frustrated."
In any event: Yesterday's uptick in McCain's odds of winning the presidency is a memory. Aft [..] Read complete article | | Published 06-Oct-2008 by Silicon in General
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| Nerdblog | Blogger | Provides news about hardware, software, notebooks, laptops, PCs, Mac, PDAs
Nerdblog.Net |
| Gallery: <cite>Star Wars</cite>, Aliens and Outta-This-World Lines at Comic-Con | | : Photo: Jim Merithew/Wired.com
SAN DIEGO — More people, more lines and more crazy costumes. Welcome to Day 2 of Comic-Con International, where even hot pretzels can command an impressive line.
Left: Mina Castillo, 7, of Virginia Beach, Virginia, dressed up as Jupiter and attended Comic-Con with her grandmother, Cynthia Lucia of San Diego, at left, dressed [...] [..] Read complete article | | Published 26-Jul-2008 by Nerdblog in General
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