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 Send to email | RIM Q4 Preview: Major Upside or Bust (RIMM) in RIMM |  By Silicon
el 02-Apr-2008 |  We already know that BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (RIMM) had a good quarter: In late February, the company jacked its subscriber guidance by up to 20%. The question is whether the subscriber upside extended to revenue and earnings, which it should have. If it didn't, look out below.
Specifically, for the stock to go up from here, RIMM needs to handily beat revenue and EPS estimates AND significantly raise guidance (see below).
What will we be looking out for when RIM posts Q4 results this afternoon?
First, did increased subscribers really generate higher sales and profits? When RIM increased its subscriber guidance 15%-20% in February, it didn't touch revenue or EPS guidance. So is RIM just setting the table for a blowout? Or are subscriber acquisition costs and lower-priced BlackBerry Pearl sales reducing the company's per-unit top and bottom lines?
And second, how's the mix between enterprise and "pro-sumer" sales going? Last quarter, 34% of RIM's subscribers were "non-enterprise," up from 30% the quarter before. The consumer smartphone market is growing fast -- good news for RIM -- but, especially in a recession, non-enterprise customers are more likely to buy cheaper phones (like the Pearl) and aren't as tied down to BlackBerry back-end systems as business customers are.
Here's what analysts are expecting:
- Revenue: $1.85 billion (vs. $1.80 billiion to $1.87 billion guidance). Expect significant upside here.
- EPS: 70 cents (vs. 66 cents to 70 cents guidance, 76 cents whisper number)
- Subscriber net additions: Anything above 2.5 million is "very bullish," according to AmTech (vs. 2.1 million to 2.2 million guidance)
- Guidance: Current consensus for FQ1 is $2.01 billion of revenue and $0.75 of EPS. These estimates likely need to go up at least 5%-10% to avoid a stock drop.
See Also:
RIM's iPhone Killer: Just Like iPhone, But Crappier
Research In Motion (RIMM) Preview: Huge Stock Upside
Smartphone Sales To Triple, Good News For Apple, RIM, Carriers
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 | Yahoo User Interface Blog |  Blogger | Is a collection of industrial-grade JavaScript utilities and widgets that enable you to efficiently get the most out of today’s powerful web applications. Yahoo! User Interface Blog News and Articles about Designing and Developing wiht Yahoo! Libraries. |
| Apple Fans Predict Blowout Quarter...But All That Matters Is Guidance | | A group of folks who ridicule Wall Street analysts for intentionally lowballing their Apple estimates so Apple can "surprise" on the upside have assembled their own consensus for Apple's Q4. Not surprisingly, the consensus calls for upside:
$8.4 billion of revenue vs. the Street consensus of $8.0 and Apple's guidance of $7.5.
EPS of $1.25 vs. the Street consensus of $1.11 [..] Read complete article | | Published 19-Oct-2008 by Silicon in General
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| Yahoo User Interface Blog | Blogger | Is a collection of industrial-grade JavaScript utilities and widgets that enable you to efficiently get the most out of today’s powerful web applications. Yahoo! User Interface Blog News and Articles about Designing and Developing wiht Yahoo! Libraries. |
| YUI 3.0 Preview Release 1 |  The YUI team is pleased to announce the public availability of YUI 3.0 Preview Release 1, an early look at what we’re working on for the next generation of the YUI Library. Documentation for YUI 3.0 is on the YUI website; the download is available on the YUI project area on SourceForge; you can find [...] [..] Read complete article | | Published 13-Aug-2008 by Eric Miraglia and Matt Sweeney in Development
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| Kotaku`s The Gamers Guide | Blogger | XBOX 360 Gamers Weblog
Gossip, news and leaks for obsessive gamers Kotaku As if you don't waste enough of your time in a gamer's haze, here's Kotaku: a gamer's guide that goes beyond the press release. Gossip, cheats, criticism, design, nostalgia, pred |
| Kotaku`s The Gamers Guide | Blogger | XBOX 360 Gamers Weblog
Gossip, news and leaks for obsessive gamers Kotaku As if you don't waste enough of your time in a gamer's haze, here's Kotaku: a gamer's guide that goes beyond the press release. Gossip, cheats, criticism, design, nostalgia, pred |
| Kotaku`s The Gamers Guide | Blogger | XBOX 360 Gamers Weblog
Gossip, news and leaks for obsessive gamers Kotaku As if you don't waste enough of your time in a gamer's haze, here's Kotaku: a gamer's guide that goes beyond the press release. Gossip, cheats, criticism, design, nostalgia, pred |
| Kotaku`s The Gamers Guide | Blogger | XBOX 360 Gamers Weblog
Gossip, news and leaks for obsessive gamers Kotaku As if you don't waste enough of your time in a gamer's haze, here's Kotaku: a gamer's guide that goes beyond the press release. Gossip, cheats, criticism, design, nostalgia, pred |
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Google reports Q3 results this evening after the close. Please join us at 4PM for LIVE ANALYSIS.
The good news: Google has a better chance of surprising on the upside this quart [..] 
YUI 3.0 Preview Release 1 was made available on Wednesday, and with it we provided a look at how the next major iteration of YUI is taking shape. Among the elements we shipped with the preview is a new example from Dav Glass, the Draggable Portal, which exercises a broad cross section of the [...] [..] 
From Clusterstock:
Kaufman Bros. sees almost 50% upside for Internet content company The Knot (KNOT). Kaufman thinks that, as the leader in the wedding market, The Knot can [..] 
