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Send to email | Should Motorola Put Its Phone Business To Sleep? in GOOG | By Silicon el 10-Apr-2008 |
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What's the best way to solve the problems at Motorola's struggling cellphone division? Kill it, says Charter Equity Research analyst Ed Snyder. In a note summarized by Barron's editor Eric Savitz, Snyder suggests Motorola is screwed, spinoff or not.
"Like Ericsson in 2001 and Siemens in 2005, we believe Motorola is
caught in a tightening spiral of losses, layoffs and declining traction
in phones that will culminate in management closing or giving away the
handset business," he says. "The chances of saving Mobile Devices
through restructuring are exceedingly slim. It takes two to four years
to revamp a product line and with $300 million in losses each quarter,
it is unlikely the company would last long enough to break-even in
phones."
And the stock? Savitz:
The stock, Snyder contends, "will decline through a series of new
lows punctuated by spikes of short-lived optimism that a quick fix is
at hand." He says the stock is headed down to book value -- $6.70 a
share -- as cash consumption increases to fund the deficits in the handset business and management struggles to find a solution. Once they get
rid of handsets, he says, the stock could sink further, to the $4-$5
range.
We don't think there's a quick fix, but we don't think Motorola is done, either. It's certainly not impossible to turn a cellphone company around: Motorola has already done this twice. Its brand isn't as strong as it once was, and its cellphone lineup stinks. But we've heard encouraging things about the latest version of its "Q" smartphone, and if Google's (GOOG) Android operating system -- which Motorola is building into some of its phones -- gets any traction, the company could get some help there later this year.
And, more immediately, what about Indian conglomerate Videocon, whose billionaire chairman says he wants to buy Motorola?
See Also: Motorola CEO Search: Ron Garriques Has A Small Fan Club Who Should Lead Motorola's Turnaround? Motorola To Spin Off Cellphone Business

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