How many Kindles will Amazon sell in its first year out? We've seen two estimates so far:

• An Asian screen supplier is supposedly gearing up to provide Amazon (AMZN) with parts for more than 600,000 Kindles in the device's first year.
• Citi analyst Mark Mahaney makes a more modest guesstimate, pegging sales at half of the iPod's (AAPL) first-year rate -- about 190,000.

Well, time for context: How did other breakthrough gadgets do in their first year or so? All over the map. But if Amazon's e-reader can get anywhere in the range of Mahaney's estimate, it might not be the bust we first thought.

/images/kindle-small.jpg: Paste this image in your site, Myspace, Facebook, Ebay copy this code... <a href="http://www.weeklybits.com/the-kindle-vs-the-gadget-hall-of-fame-3a-how-will-amazon-27s-sales-stack-up-3f-28amzn-29_article_8_6242.html"><img src="http://static.10gen.com/www.alleyinsider.com/~~/f?id=47a93abf4b543772005f804a&maxX=70&maxY=100" border="0" alt="/images/kindle-small.jpg en Tech WeBlogs WEEKLYBITS.COM"></a> Amazon Kindle (2007)	ipod-original.jpg: Paste this image in your site, Myspace, Facebook, Ebay copy this code... <a href="http://www.weeklybits.com/the-kindle-vs-the-gadget-hall-of-fame-3a-how-will-amazon-27s-sales-stack-up-3f-28amzn-29_article_8_6242.html"><img src="http://static.10gen.com/www.alleyinsider.com/~~/f?id=482ded3914b9b90a00fa21f8" border="0" alt="ipod-original.jpg en Tech WeBlogs WEEKLYBITS.COM"></a> Apple iPod (2001)	/images/iphone.jpg: Paste this image in your site, Myspace, Facebook, Ebay copy this code... <a href="http://www.weeklybits.com/the-kindle-vs-the-gadget-hall-of-fame-3a-how-will-amazon-27s-sales-stack-up-3f-28amzn-29_article_8_6242.html"><img src="http://static.10gen.com/www.alleyinsider.com/~~/f?id=47a9398b4b543772005e679e" border="0" alt="/images/iphone.jpg en Tech WeBlogs WEEKLYBITS.COM"></a> Apple iPhone (2007)	blackberry-850.jpg: Paste this image in your site, Myspace, Facebook, Ebay copy this code... <a href="http://www.weeklybits.com/the-kindle-vs-the-gadget-hall-of-fame-3a-how-will-amazon-27s-sales-stack-up-3f-28amzn-29_article_8_6242.html"><img src="http://static.10gen.com/www.alleyinsider.com/~~/f?id=482ded4b14b9b90a00fa21fc" border="0" alt="blackberry-850.jpg en Tech WeBlogs WEEKLYBITS.COM"></a> RIM BlackBerry (1999)	palm-pilot.jpg: Paste this image in your site, Myspace, Facebook, Ebay copy this code... <a href="http://www.weeklybits.com/the-kindle-vs-the-gadget-hall-of-fame-3a-how-will-amazon-27s-sales-stack-up-3f-28amzn-29_article_8_6242.html"><img src="http://static.10gen.com/www.alleyinsider.com/~~/f?id=482ded3f14b9b90a00fa21fa" border="0" alt="palm-pilot.jpg en Tech WeBlogs WEEKLYBITS.COM"></a> Palm Pilot (1997)	razr.jpg: Paste this image in your site, Myspace, Facebook, Ebay copy this code... <a href="http://www.weeklybits.com/the-kindle-vs-the-gadget-hall-of-fame-3a-how-will-amazon-27s-sales-stack-up-3f-28amzn-29_article_8_6242.html"><img src="http://static.10gen.com/www.alleyinsider.com/~~/f?id=482ded4f14b9b90a00fa21fe" border="0" alt="razr.jpg en Tech WeBlogs WEEKLYBITS.COM"></a> Motorola Razr V3 (2004)	game-boy.jpg: Paste this image in your site, Myspace, Facebook, Ebay copy this code... <a href="http://www.weeklybits.com/the-kindle-vs-the-gadget-hall-of-fame-3a-how-will-amazon-27s-sales-stack-up-3f-28amzn-29_article_8_6242.html"><img src="http://static.10gen.com/www.alleyinsider.com/~~/f?id=482dfb7314b9b90a00fa2295" border="0" alt="game-boy.jpg en Tech WeBlogs WEEKLYBITS.COM"></a> Nintendo Gameboy (1989)
189,000 - 600,000	376,000	5.4 million*	165,000**	0.5-1 million	23 million	2.8 million

*Number of Apple (AAPL) iPhones sold through the end of March, 2008; approx. 9 months of sales.
**Number of RIM (RIMM) BlackBerry users according to 2001 Annual Report, 2 years after its release.