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 Send to email | What Does The ValueClick Miss Mean For AOL, Yahoo, MySpace, etc? in VCLKTWX |  By Silicon
el 17-Jul-2008 |
crater.jpg: Paste this image in your site, Myspace, Facebook, Ebay copy this code...
 ValueClick (VCLK) cratered this morning after it preannounced earnings and said it was going to miss not only Q2 but the remainder of the year because the ad market is tanking. Specifically, it said it would post just a low single-digit percentage increase in display ad revenue for all of FY08, while lead generation revenue would drop more than 20%.
The big question: Are ValueClick's problems specific to ValueClick? Or are they reflective of a true industrywide recesssion? Pali Research's Rich Greenfield (reg. required) is worried that it might be the latter, and says he is now rethinking his estimates for AOL's (TWX) performance for the rest of 2008:
We forecast AOL's display advertising revenues down about 8% in Q2 (Q1 08 was down about 10% organically), with the back-half down mid-single digits. Combining search and ad-network revenues, we are forecasting total advertising revenues for AOL to grow low single digits in the next few quarters (Q1 was up less than 1% y-o-y). Given the weakness in display advertising and increasing competition among ad networks, we are worried our back half 2008 forecasts may be aggressive.
But we've done some canvassing of big Web publishers, and people familiar with them, and the consensus of our mini-poll is unanimous: The market may not be great, but ValueClick's problems are their own.
Big Web publishers are struggling with the kind of remnant display ad inventory that VCLK sells -- that's one of the reasons MySpace and the rest of Fox Interactive Media couldn't hit their goals this year, we're told -- but that's not news. And ValueClick's leadgen problems are truly its own -- this is somewhat counterintuitive, but we're told that leadgen buyers are more likely to bail out of the ad market than traditional branders. The second half of this year isn't going to be pretty for people dependent on online ad dollars, we're told, but it's not going to be a disaster, either. Here's hoping our correspondents are correct.
See Also: ValueClick: Ad Recession Means We Won't Make Our Quarter
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| MySpace Announces Data Availability Launch (NWS) |  MySpace has officially unveiled a program (press release) that will allow users to share MySpace photos, TV networks, and friend networks with Yahoo!, eBay, Twitter, and Photobucket. See an example of how it works at the end of the post.
On the call, MySpace execs said that the program would be launching worldwide in the next several weeks, but they would not pin down a start date. Th [..] Read complete article | | Published 08-May-2008 by Silicon in General
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| News Corp. Web Unit Will Miss Revenue Goals, After All (NWS) | | News Corp.'s Fox Interactive Media group, which includes MySpace and other web sites, will miss the company's goals of $1 billion in revenue and $200 million in operating profit. FIM chief revenue officer Michael Barrett will leave and the company will reorg its sales team.
TechCrunch first reported the story late Thursday night, and says FIM will likely hit $900 million in revenue and w [..] Read complete article | | Published 04-Apr-2008 by Silicon in NWS
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| News Corp. Blows MySpace Revenue Targets, Reorgs (NWS) | | News Corp.'s Fox Interactive Media group, which includes MySpace and other web sites, will miss the company's goals of $1 billion in revenue and $200 million in operating profit. FIM chief revenue officer Michael Barrett will leave and the company will reorg its sales team.
TechCrunch first reported the story late Thursday night, and says FIM will likely hit $900 million in revenue and w [..] Read complete article | | Published 04-Apr-2008 by Silicon in NWS
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