Though we've had all eyes on the acquisition arm-wrestle between Electronic Arts and Take-Two ever since EA's bid went public on February 25th, things could start getting yet more interesting from here on out. Recall that Take-Two Board chairman Strauss Zelnick's been stonewalling EA, refusing to even discuss a possible combination until April 30th, after GTA IV's release. Well, then now could be the time, right?

Analysts, of both the professional and the armchair varieties, suspected that Take-Two's stock was set to take a big leap with the major title launch, thereby forcing EA to raise its offer. And it's true that Take-Two's stock has drifted up a little bit higher this week to over $26 per share by a handful of change, trumping EA's current offer of $25.74.

Talking to the New York Times recently, Strauss Zelnick says the increase proves the wisdom of his strategy. Some possible flaws in his logic, however, make the situation a little less clear-cut.

Zelnick told the Times:

"The critical and consumer response to Grand Theft Auto IV vindicates our strategy of waiting until the launch with regard to E.A.'s offer," said Strauss Zelnick, the chairman of Take-Two, in a statement.

Enthusiasm and high critical acclaim for GTA IV leading up to its launch has been unavoidable (as Kotaku readers have doubtless observed in spades). We haven't seen North American numbers yet, but we know it's broken records in the UK. With that in mind, though, wouldn't you expect to see a bigger price jump for the stock than just a little bit of pocket jingle?

Moreover, the increase in Take-Two's share price over the last week pales in comparison to the boost it saw following the EA bid; prior to that, it was trading at a much less-robust $17 per share. As of press time today, the stock has been malingering throughout the morning, sagging slowly back closer to the even $26 mark, and over the past few days, three major analyst groups - Citibank, Janco Partners and the Cowan Group - have downgraded their recommendations from "buy" or "outperform" to either "hold" or "neutral."

EA's Jeff Brown also talked to the NY Times:

"We've seen a share price above and below our offer and it doesn't change anything. We knew the game would be an extraordinary success," said Jeff Brown, a spokesman for Electronic Arts. "All of that was factored into our offer of $2 billion."

So one thing remains the same: Zelnick says EA's shafting him, EA says it isn't. Zelnick may feel vindicated while the stock is over $26 - but if the stock continues to slide rather than climb in the wake of GTA IV's release, as some analysts have suggested it might, he may need to reconsider. Neither Take-Two nor EA look about to blink in this staring contest, though.
Grand Theft Auto IV and Real-World Billions [NY Times]